The coming Big Quake in Utah
Yesterday a 5.7 shook Magna, Utah and was felt through Salt Lake County and into the surrounding counties. Thankfully there were no injuries or fatalities. There was some damage.
The moderate shaker was been rightfully called a wake up for the people of Utah. A bigger earthquake is coming. When isn't known.
I have several posts related to earthquakes in Utah, and I've mentioned how Hector Sosa has said he was told there would be a two day sign before the first Big One. In his book he didn't know what the two day sign would be. But on his book's forums he has said it was revealed to him that the sign would be a dormant cinder cone volcano becoming active again.
I inquired where this cinder cone might be since there aren't any around the Salt Lake area. I said:
There are no public records that I have found of any volcanic remnants in that area so a dormant cinder cone volcano either hasn't been identified, or it hasn't made an appearance.
It is an interesting location for a two-day sign to be given. Either peak could probably be seen from most places along the Wasatch Front, if there aren't structures or trees in the way. And if there's a plume of smoke coming from that area, rising into the atmosphere, it would definitely be seen.
I replied to Hector's post, "I wonder if these Magna quakes might be shaking the magma below and end up waking up a dormant cinder cone in the next year or two."
Last year the 3-range Bluffdale quakes rattled the south end of the Salt Lake Valley. This year the 5.7 and numerous 3 and 4 aftershocks have shook nearer to the north end of the valley.
Will we see the magnitude 7 strike next year?
I can imagine the news and headlines. Salt Lake citizens wake up surprised to discover an unknown cinder cone volcano spewing smoke into the air. People from all over the Salt Lake and Tooele valleys can see the smoke, as well as many residents of Utah and Davis counties. Many are panicked about a volcanic eruption but scientists report that there is no threat of anything more serious than the smoke, and there is no sign or indication of magmatic activity. A few warnings of an impending earthquake start to surface, but those are also quelled by scientists and geologists who adamantly state the cinder cone activity is unrelated to the Wasatch Fault.
Of course, everyone will be surprised when a magnitude 7.0 strikes two days later, everyone that is except those who were looking for the two day sign.
Following that event there will be reports through social media about a bigger earthquake being imminent. But all the experts will state the likelihood is almost zero, and the faults aren't capable of producing anything much bigger than what was experienced. As more time passes, the "warnings" of a bigger quake are increasingly ignored, mocked, or laughed at since Utah already had a Big One and statistically it would be hundreds of years before another large magnitude quake should be expected.
The geologists and others will also claim that the Wasatch Fault isn't capable of producing higher magnitude quakes so any claim of an impending 8, 9, or larger earthquake is simply not possible.
In the Book of Mormon we often read about the Nephites repenting and have periods of peace and prosperity lasting from 2-4 years before they fall back into pride and iniquity. Sometimes it's longer, a few times it's shorter. But, the 2-4 years seems to be about average. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the bigger earthquake doesn't strike for a few more years, if the people repent sufficiently. That would mean if we get a Big One next year (2021) then the really big one might hit 3 years later (the average of 2-4 years), which is interesting because it's around 2024 when I think things will really start falling apart.
Regarding the "statistics" if you look at the reports of ancient quakes you can realize there are not hard dates, just rough estimates and most people see the identified ancient quakes are individual events, unrelated, and usually separated by many years, usually hundreds. But I have seen one report that not just looked at the ancient Big Ones as individual events but also postulated whether some might've been multi-fault ruptures, either occurring at the same time or very near in time.
The statistical bell curves for these events are intriguing. The top of the curve is when they believe the quake most likely happened, but then you have both sides extending out. When you look at quakes across the various segments of the Wasatch Fault throughout history you can easily see several quakes lining up really close together. Interestingly there were several ruptures that happened on multiple segments close to 2,000 years ago.
As for larger magnitude earthquakes, from our limited knowledge, observations, and measurements it can be stated that we don't believe anything higher than a magnitude 7.5-6 is possible. But, the reality is we don't really know. Nobody was around to record any of the ancient quakes. There are surprises being discovered about earthquakes on a near-yearly basis.
So, whether you believe another Big One will happen after the first or not, it's better to be prepared. I believe bigger quakes are possible and the scientific evidence does show the possibility of multiple large earthquakes happening within a relatively short time of each other.
The moderate shaker was been rightfully called a wake up for the people of Utah. A bigger earthquake is coming. When isn't known.
I have several posts related to earthquakes in Utah, and I've mentioned how Hector Sosa has said he was told there would be a two day sign before the first Big One. In his book he didn't know what the two day sign would be. But on his book's forums he has said it was revealed to him that the sign would be a dormant cinder cone volcano becoming active again.
I inquired where this cinder cone might be since there aren't any around the Salt Lake area. I said:
"I think it's interesting that the 2-day sign is a dormant cinder cone volcano waking up. Because you said it's a dormant cinder cone volcano it is either one we already know about or it will be discovered before it wakes up.To which Hector responded:
"A few days ago there were reports of a supervolcano discovered in south-central Utah that is 30 times bigger than Yellowstone, however the actual discovery was first reported by the Deseret News in December 2013. I didn't catch why it made the news now because the only real difference I found was in 2013 they thought the area was extinct and the current reports say it's dormant.
"You mentioned it would be somewhere on the Wasatch Fault. I haven't been able to find any mention of a cinder cone volcano along the Wasatch Fault. The closest is Black Rock Volcano, but that is still about 30 miles south-west from the end of the Wasatch Fault. There is a shield volcano west of Nephi and Levan in Juab County, but that technically isn't on the Wasatch Fault.
"I'm wondering, could the volcanic activity be within the Intermountain Seismic Zone, which runs the entire length of the state, or will it be somewhere along the Wasatch Fault, which runs from Malad to about Levan/Fayette? There is definitely volcanic-related activity--like a number of hot springs including the Homestead Crater--along the Fault, I just haven't found mention of any cinder cone volcanoes."
"There was some very specific information that was gleaned from talking to the different people who experienced/saw this future quake. There were about 8 experiences that I was able to gather and/or listen to. From all of those and my own experience a group of us was able to narrow down the area where the plume is seen. There's a mountain range east of Tooele that has several dormant cinder cones. We triangulated the plume to be around Clipper Peak or Lowe Peak on that mountain range."Here are some images from Google Maps of the area.
The next images are further out so the peak names aren't showing up. I marked the peaks with the distance measurement.
There are no public records that I have found of any volcanic remnants in that area so a dormant cinder cone volcano either hasn't been identified, or it hasn't made an appearance.
It is an interesting location for a two-day sign to be given. Either peak could probably be seen from most places along the Wasatch Front, if there aren't structures or trees in the way. And if there's a plume of smoke coming from that area, rising into the atmosphere, it would definitely be seen.
I replied to Hector's post, "I wonder if these Magna quakes might be shaking the magma below and end up waking up a dormant cinder cone in the next year or two."
Last year the 3-range Bluffdale quakes rattled the south end of the Salt Lake Valley. This year the 5.7 and numerous 3 and 4 aftershocks have shook nearer to the north end of the valley.
Will we see the magnitude 7 strike next year?
I can imagine the news and headlines. Salt Lake citizens wake up surprised to discover an unknown cinder cone volcano spewing smoke into the air. People from all over the Salt Lake and Tooele valleys can see the smoke, as well as many residents of Utah and Davis counties. Many are panicked about a volcanic eruption but scientists report that there is no threat of anything more serious than the smoke, and there is no sign or indication of magmatic activity. A few warnings of an impending earthquake start to surface, but those are also quelled by scientists and geologists who adamantly state the cinder cone activity is unrelated to the Wasatch Fault.
Of course, everyone will be surprised when a magnitude 7.0 strikes two days later, everyone that is except those who were looking for the two day sign.
Following that event there will be reports through social media about a bigger earthquake being imminent. But all the experts will state the likelihood is almost zero, and the faults aren't capable of producing anything much bigger than what was experienced. As more time passes, the "warnings" of a bigger quake are increasingly ignored, mocked, or laughed at since Utah already had a Big One and statistically it would be hundreds of years before another large magnitude quake should be expected.
The geologists and others will also claim that the Wasatch Fault isn't capable of producing higher magnitude quakes so any claim of an impending 8, 9, or larger earthquake is simply not possible.
In the Book of Mormon we often read about the Nephites repenting and have periods of peace and prosperity lasting from 2-4 years before they fall back into pride and iniquity. Sometimes it's longer, a few times it's shorter. But, the 2-4 years seems to be about average. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the bigger earthquake doesn't strike for a few more years, if the people repent sufficiently. That would mean if we get a Big One next year (2021) then the really big one might hit 3 years later (the average of 2-4 years), which is interesting because it's around 2024 when I think things will really start falling apart.
Regarding the "statistics" if you look at the reports of ancient quakes you can realize there are not hard dates, just rough estimates and most people see the identified ancient quakes are individual events, unrelated, and usually separated by many years, usually hundreds. But I have seen one report that not just looked at the ancient Big Ones as individual events but also postulated whether some might've been multi-fault ruptures, either occurring at the same time or very near in time.
The statistical bell curves for these events are intriguing. The top of the curve is when they believe the quake most likely happened, but then you have both sides extending out. When you look at quakes across the various segments of the Wasatch Fault throughout history you can easily see several quakes lining up really close together. Interestingly there were several ruptures that happened on multiple segments close to 2,000 years ago.
As for larger magnitude earthquakes, from our limited knowledge, observations, and measurements it can be stated that we don't believe anything higher than a magnitude 7.5-6 is possible. But, the reality is we don't really know. Nobody was around to record any of the ancient quakes. There are surprises being discovered about earthquakes on a near-yearly basis.
So, whether you believe another Big One will happen after the first or not, it's better to be prepared. I believe bigger quakes are possible and the scientific evidence does show the possibility of multiple large earthquakes happening within a relatively short time of each other.
Comments
Post a Comment