Wasatch Area Earthquake Probability
Several years ago, FEMA had an earthquake analysis done for the Wasatch Fault. Another analysis/scenario was completed in June 2015. It seems like the earlier scenario was based on a 7.2 quake. The more recent scenario is based on a 7.0 quake.
http://dem.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2015/03/RS1058_EERI_SLC_EQ_Scenario.pdf
From the executive summary:
"Loss estimates for the scenario earthquake indicate disastrous impact. The estimated short-term economic loss is over $33 billion. This includes (1) direct building-related capital losses (including structural, non-structural, content, and inventory) of $24.9 billion,
(2) income losses of $6.9 billion, and (3) lifeline-related losses of $1.4 billion. More than 84,000 households are expected to be displaced with nearly 53,000 individuals seeking shelters. Depending on the time of day, there will be an estimated 2,000 to 2,500 deaths, and the estimated number of people injured and needing hospital care ranges from 7,400 to 9,300. Essential lifelines such as water, electricity,
gas, and sewer will be disrupted for days to months, and in some locations in the Salt Lake Valley, perhaps longer. An example challenge will be the need to evaluate for safe occupancy more than 300,000 structures in 30 days, which will require about 2,400
building inspectors. Another challenge will be the removal of debris generated by the earthquake―requiring over 820,000 truckloads at 25 tons per truck."
From page 15,
"In the 30 days following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, based on a reasonable aftershock model, we can expect up to three aftershocks greater than magnitude 6, 13 greater than magnitude 5, and 77 greater than magnitude 4."
Loss estimations on page 26 are interesting. Households without potable water after the earthquake are estimated to be at 483,600 and 444,600 will be without electricity. After 90 days, only 800 households will still be without electricity, BUT an estimated 332,800 will still be without potable water.
A recent earthquake probability analysis was put out earlier this year
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3019/fs20163019.pdf
"There is a 43 percent probability that the Wasatch Front region will experience at least one M6.75 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years."
"There is a 57 percent probability of one or more M6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years."
While I'm sure at least some of the Brethren have received revelation regarding the coming earthquakes, much of what gets presented is based on researched data, analysis, and prediction modeling.
For me, it's interesting reading. It gives credence to those who have had dreams and visions regarding earthquakes. And if the magnitudes increase into the high 8 and 9 ranges, devastation is what is left.
A 7-7.2 will be a warning. But many will see it as being the Big One and not believe other big--or even bigger--quakes are on the horizon. Reading the brief, under-stated descriptions of the destruction that happened in the Americas at the Savior's death will give you an idea of what is possible.
http://dem.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2015/03/RS1058_EERI_SLC_EQ_Scenario.pdf
From the executive summary:
"Loss estimates for the scenario earthquake indicate disastrous impact. The estimated short-term economic loss is over $33 billion. This includes (1) direct building-related capital losses (including structural, non-structural, content, and inventory) of $24.9 billion,
(2) income losses of $6.9 billion, and (3) lifeline-related losses of $1.4 billion. More than 84,000 households are expected to be displaced with nearly 53,000 individuals seeking shelters. Depending on the time of day, there will be an estimated 2,000 to 2,500 deaths, and the estimated number of people injured and needing hospital care ranges from 7,400 to 9,300. Essential lifelines such as water, electricity,
gas, and sewer will be disrupted for days to months, and in some locations in the Salt Lake Valley, perhaps longer. An example challenge will be the need to evaluate for safe occupancy more than 300,000 structures in 30 days, which will require about 2,400
building inspectors. Another challenge will be the removal of debris generated by the earthquake―requiring over 820,000 truckloads at 25 tons per truck."
From page 15,
"In the 30 days following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, based on a reasonable aftershock model, we can expect up to three aftershocks greater than magnitude 6, 13 greater than magnitude 5, and 77 greater than magnitude 4."
Loss estimations on page 26 are interesting. Households without potable water after the earthquake are estimated to be at 483,600 and 444,600 will be without electricity. After 90 days, only 800 households will still be without electricity, BUT an estimated 332,800 will still be without potable water.
A recent earthquake probability analysis was put out earlier this year
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3019/fs20163019.pdf
"There is a 43 percent probability that the Wasatch Front region will experience at least one M6.75 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years."
"There is a 57 percent probability of one or more M6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years."
While I'm sure at least some of the Brethren have received revelation regarding the coming earthquakes, much of what gets presented is based on researched data, analysis, and prediction modeling.
For me, it's interesting reading. It gives credence to those who have had dreams and visions regarding earthquakes. And if the magnitudes increase into the high 8 and 9 ranges, devastation is what is left.
A 7-7.2 will be a warning. But many will see it as being the Big One and not believe other big--or even bigger--quakes are on the horizon. Reading the brief, under-stated descriptions of the destruction that happened in the Americas at the Savior's death will give you an idea of what is possible.
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