Coming Recession...and what may happen in the following years
I've had several past posts where I've discussed a coming recession/depression.
I saw this article on my News Republic news feed this morning:
http://va.newsrepublic.net/a/6554141997697860106?user_id=6499096077969392649&language=en®ion=us&app_id=1239&impr_id=6554374032815294730&gid=6554092083900268810&c=email&language=en
A quick internet search and here's a few more:
Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-think-the-next-u-s-recession-could-begin-in-2020-1525961127
"A recession isn’t imminent, but the expansion won’t last forever—and the next downturn might arrive in the thick of the 2020 presidential campaign."
From CNBC on April 19, 2018,
75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/75-percent-of-the-ultra-rich-forecast-a-us-recession-in-the-next-two-years-survey-finds.html
"Of those expecting an economic downturn in the U.S., a fifth of respondents — 21 percent — believe it will begin in 2019 and 50 percent expect the next recession to start in 2020."
Back in October 2017 the Economic Times had an article Brace up! Next global recession may come in 2019 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/brace-up-next-global-recession-may-come-in-2019/articleshow/60941648.cms
How about a January 5, 2018, opinion article from the Washington Post The Trump Recession is coming https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.868cb9f4ccda
The Washington Post article presents several factors that I have seen as very real possibilities since last year.
Of course, there always seems to be some group, pundit, financial "expert", or economist crying wolf about the economy.
But the reality is there is an economic cycle. Sometimes the lows are minor market corrections. Often they are small recessions. Occasionally it's a bigger recession.
And, rarely, a depression hits, a real market crash. It's hard to tell when these will come, but there may be an approximate 90-year cycle for these crashes. There isn't enough historical data to say for sure. Last November I discussed this possibility http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-coming-crash.html
If you didn't guess, the last depression was the Great Depression that started in 1929. Add 90 years and you get 2019.
The last recession occurred in 2007, but it was not officially recognized until 2008 as having started in 2007. This is not uncommon. Economists wait until there has been sufficient economic data to officially declare a particular type of economic season.
This means a depression/recession could actually start in 2019, but it won't be declared as such until 2020.
I think this year may see the Democrats taking the majority in one or both houses of Congress. Odds are more likely it will just be one house, but it will be enough to stall things.
If they do get control of at least one house of Congress, they will most likely call for the impeachment of President Trump sometime in 2019.
Signs of economic strains will probably become more evident as 2019 progresses.
In unrelated events, there will likely be increased drought conditions in the summer of 2019, possibly even beginning to cast doubt on future food production. But, with government subsidies the public probably won't see much change.
Depending on how the impeachment process proceeds, Trump may end up resigning. If the Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress I think this impeachment process is highly likely.
It is possible Trump could be assassinated, but I think the manipulating powers would prefer to have him discredited and humiliated, along with the Republican agenda, instead of an assassination. I doubt Trump will continue through a full impeachment if it looks like he might get impeached. He will most likely opt to resign instead, which would minimize his embarrassment and allow him to continue to blame the fake news, Democrats, Liberals, and others.
The presidential election cycle will begin heating up by the end of 2019 for the 2020 elections.
The timing of a depression/recession along with impending famine-like conditions will most likely sweep the Democrat candidate into the presidency. It's also very likely that Democrats will either continue to have control of one house of Congress or they may gain control of both houses.
As soon as they can, the Democrats will begin economic and Constitutional changes (primarily affecting first and second amendment issues) after beginning their term in January 2021. If they don't win both houses of Congress we may not see serious changes until 2023, after the 2022 election. But if they do, there will be significant changes coming before 2021 ends.
Since most recessionary periods don't last more than a few years, by this time (if the recession/depression starts in 2019) the recessionary cycle will be nearly complete and the economy will begin positioned to grow again. So, by 2022 economic conditions will probably be improving, not really because of anything the Democrats (because they will not have been in power long enough to have made a significant difference) but they will claim the victory of an improving economy.
Similarly, drought and famine conditions will probably be subsiding by 2022. Again, the Democrats will probably take credit for those changes as well, probably touting their climate friendly, green-progressive agenda.
Because of the improving conditions, if they don't already have majorities in both houses of Congress, the Democrats will very likely gain majorities in the 2022 election. They will probably see this a further "mandate" from the public to continue with their ultra liberal, socialist agenda and push further changes on America in 2023.
Unfortunately during these years the country will become increasingly divided, angry, and contentious.
China and Russia will have increased their influence around the world. Their military will have strengthened considerably and the new cold war will be extremely chilly.
North Korea and Iran will be much more serious threats.
I think a series of major natural disasters striking America, possibly beginning in late 2023 and continuing through 2024 will drain resources, and strain the economy to a near breaking point. Imagine how bad it would get if a bioterrorist attack occurred during these disasters. What about a pandemic? If millions died as a result of the combined multiple natural disasters and viruses sweeping through the nation, then America's enemies will see it as an opportune time to stage an attack and invasion (probably towards the end of 2024).
I saw this article on my News Republic news feed this morning:
http://va.newsrepublic.net/a/6554141997697860106?user_id=6499096077969392649&language=en®ion=us&app_id=1239&impr_id=6554374032815294730&gid=6554092083900268810&c=email&language=en
"Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are predicting 2020. We're currently in an economic expansion that started in mid-2009—the second-longest in American history—and 59% of the forecasters surveyed think it is most likely to end in two years due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Another 22% predicted 2021; smaller groups predicted 2019, 2022, or an unspecified date beyond that."
A quick internet search and here's a few more:
Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-think-the-next-u-s-recession-could-begin-in-2020-1525961127
"A recession isn’t imminent, but the expansion won’t last forever—and the next downturn might arrive in the thick of the 2020 presidential campaign."
From CNBC on April 19, 2018,
75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/75-percent-of-the-ultra-rich-forecast-a-us-recession-in-the-next-two-years-survey-finds.html
"Of those expecting an economic downturn in the U.S., a fifth of respondents — 21 percent — believe it will begin in 2019 and 50 percent expect the next recession to start in 2020."
Back in October 2017 the Economic Times had an article Brace up! Next global recession may come in 2019 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/brace-up-next-global-recession-may-come-in-2019/articleshow/60941648.cms
How about a January 5, 2018, opinion article from the Washington Post The Trump Recession is coming https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-recession-is-coming/2018/01/05/2c5f2142-f23f-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.868cb9f4ccda
The Washington Post article presents several factors that I have seen as very real possibilities since last year.
"History suggests that the next recession is not far off. The current expansion, though relatively weak, has been steady since June 2009, making this the third-longest upward climb on record. Juiced by the tax cut, the United States is on track to record 107 months without a recession in April, passing the boom of the 1960s in duration. That will leave only the decade-long, 120-month run in the 1990s — when the end of the Cold War met the rise of the Internet to create a Golden Age for the U.S. economy — to be beaten.
"In other words, just when the 2020 election begins to warm up, in spring 2019, the economy (if it isn’t already in recession) will break the existing record and begin testing the outer limits of the cycle. It’s not hard to imagine shocks that could trigger a drop. Democrats could win control of the House and ignite an impeachment crisis. Mueller’s investigation could take an unsettling turn. The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates faster than the economy can digest them. Or the opposite: The Fed could move too slowly and smoldering inflation could catch fire. China’s debt bubble could burst. North Korea could erupt. Or the very real threat, dreaded by Trump’s own economic advisers: The president could deliver on his trade war threats.
"By delaying the inevitable, Trump’s tax cut may prove to be a double-edged sword. The recession that might have arrived in 2018 and passed like a summer storm will likely be shoved back a couple of years. If the piper presents his bill in the midst of Trump’s reelection campaign, the president better look out, because Democrats going back to John F. Kennedy score their wins when Republican presidents stumble into late-term economic woes."And these were just some the more respectable news outlets.
Of course, there always seems to be some group, pundit, financial "expert", or economist crying wolf about the economy.
But the reality is there is an economic cycle. Sometimes the lows are minor market corrections. Often they are small recessions. Occasionally it's a bigger recession.
And, rarely, a depression hits, a real market crash. It's hard to tell when these will come, but there may be an approximate 90-year cycle for these crashes. There isn't enough historical data to say for sure. Last November I discussed this possibility http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-coming-crash.html
If you didn't guess, the last depression was the Great Depression that started in 1929. Add 90 years and you get 2019.
The last recession occurred in 2007, but it was not officially recognized until 2008 as having started in 2007. This is not uncommon. Economists wait until there has been sufficient economic data to officially declare a particular type of economic season.
This means a depression/recession could actually start in 2019, but it won't be declared as such until 2020.
I think this year may see the Democrats taking the majority in one or both houses of Congress. Odds are more likely it will just be one house, but it will be enough to stall things.
If they do get control of at least one house of Congress, they will most likely call for the impeachment of President Trump sometime in 2019.
Signs of economic strains will probably become more evident as 2019 progresses.
In unrelated events, there will likely be increased drought conditions in the summer of 2019, possibly even beginning to cast doubt on future food production. But, with government subsidies the public probably won't see much change.
Depending on how the impeachment process proceeds, Trump may end up resigning. If the Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress I think this impeachment process is highly likely.
It is possible Trump could be assassinated, but I think the manipulating powers would prefer to have him discredited and humiliated, along with the Republican agenda, instead of an assassination. I doubt Trump will continue through a full impeachment if it looks like he might get impeached. He will most likely opt to resign instead, which would minimize his embarrassment and allow him to continue to blame the fake news, Democrats, Liberals, and others.
The presidential election cycle will begin heating up by the end of 2019 for the 2020 elections.
The timing of a depression/recession along with impending famine-like conditions will most likely sweep the Democrat candidate into the presidency. It's also very likely that Democrats will either continue to have control of one house of Congress or they may gain control of both houses.
As soon as they can, the Democrats will begin economic and Constitutional changes (primarily affecting first and second amendment issues) after beginning their term in January 2021. If they don't win both houses of Congress we may not see serious changes until 2023, after the 2022 election. But if they do, there will be significant changes coming before 2021 ends.
Since most recessionary periods don't last more than a few years, by this time (if the recession/depression starts in 2019) the recessionary cycle will be nearly complete and the economy will begin positioned to grow again. So, by 2022 economic conditions will probably be improving, not really because of anything the Democrats (because they will not have been in power long enough to have made a significant difference) but they will claim the victory of an improving economy.
Similarly, drought and famine conditions will probably be subsiding by 2022. Again, the Democrats will probably take credit for those changes as well, probably touting their climate friendly, green-progressive agenda.
Because of the improving conditions, if they don't already have majorities in both houses of Congress, the Democrats will very likely gain majorities in the 2022 election. They will probably see this a further "mandate" from the public to continue with their ultra liberal, socialist agenda and push further changes on America in 2023.
Unfortunately during these years the country will become increasingly divided, angry, and contentious.
China and Russia will have increased their influence around the world. Their military will have strengthened considerably and the new cold war will be extremely chilly.
North Korea and Iran will be much more serious threats.
I think a series of major natural disasters striking America, possibly beginning in late 2023 and continuing through 2024 will drain resources, and strain the economy to a near breaking point. Imagine how bad it would get if a bioterrorist attack occurred during these disasters. What about a pandemic? If millions died as a result of the combined multiple natural disasters and viruses sweeping through the nation, then America's enemies will see it as an opportune time to stage an attack and invasion (probably towards the end of 2024).
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