Mid-term election thoughts towards the coming recession
I know it's been almost a month and half since the elections.
First, I am glad the Democrats didn't win control of the Senate and the House. But, I was right in predicting earlier this year that they would get at least control of the House. Not that that was a hard prediction.
This could be good for the markets, at least in the short term.
Very little will get done with the new Congress.
The House Democrats will push their agenda, including aggressive attacks on gun rights, and will pass all kinds of legislation through their committees.
But, very little will be passed into law by the Republican controlled Senate. The Democrats know this, but it's all political gamesmanship. They are shooting for the Presidency and full control of Congress in the 2020 election.
As for the markets, since nothing is likely to happen, it will mostly be status quo and predicable, at least for the first half of the year. Investors like predictability and stability. And, they won't have to worry about Congress making any drastic changes that might affect the economy, because the Democrats and Republicans are unlikely to come to a consensus.
The Democrats will very likely push (and have) impeachment hearings. Whether anything comes of that will remain to be seen. Again, it will be a political ploy to get the voting base worked up against the Republicans.
Which is also why a recession (or worse) will begin in late 2019 or early 2020. Personally, I think we will see the real beginnings happen by November 11, 2019. Not that there won't be big ups and downs before then. I just think the markets will mostly be up through the first half of the year, and possibly into September and (maybe) October.
But, if you have great influence on market/economic conditions, and you really dislike Trump and the Republicans, how would you influence the most amount of voters to vote against Trump and the Republicans?
You would sour the economy.
The biggest triumph being claimed by Trump and the Republicans is in the economy. So, that's were the attack will come.
Certainly they will attack other things. There will be a lot more mass shootings. There will be more issues facing privacy, religious rights, and freedom of speech.
But the economy is more tangible, and it affects everyone.
But, you wouldn't want to have an economic downturn too soon, or the Republicans might be able to have conditions improved sufficiently by the election in November 2020.
By fall 2019 we will know most of the contenders for the presidency. The presidential election cycle will be revving up.
So, what if you could orchestrate a market crash in November 2019, a full year before the presidential election, and then, over that next year conditions continue to deteriorate.
The 2007-8 Recession should have been worse, but the government propped things up instead of allowing for what could be termed as natural market easing to more realistic levels.
Additional measures have happened over the last several years that have also prevented severe market drops.
The result is conditions are ripe and the house of cards can easily come crashing down.
Once the stocks start tumbling, it will be hard to get things back on a stable footing.
I believe it is very likely that a market crash in November 2019 will lead to worsening conditions over the next year and half (at least) before economic conditions will be able to level off. Maybe something worse could happen the following October (2020), right before the elections.
If Americans have been experiencing a recession for almost a year, with little (if any) visible improvement, and then there's another economic plummet right before the election, you can be assured that Trump (or whomever the Republican candidate might be) will NOT be the next president. The Democrats will take the presidency, and they will very likely sweep control of Congress.
They will see their victory as a public mandate to push their agenda through as quickly as possible. They will brush aside the conservative parts of the country, and push the liberal agenda of the populous centers (like California and New York) on the entire country.
Increased gun control will be a hot topic, and there will likely be numerous bills passed through in a short amount of time. These will restrict types of firearms available to the public, require more background checks. probably require a national gun registry, and make owning firearms more costly with increased taxes on firearms and ammunition, and increased insurance costs for medical and homeowners.
Reductions in religious liberties and freedom of speech will also happen, in the name of "fairness" and anti-hate. LGBTQ+ will be forefront in these efforts.
Privacy protections will be attacked as regulations are pushed that force companies (particularly tech ones) to work with law enforcement in decrypting information of criminals, or potential criminal activity. The claim is these actions will also help protect our people (including the children) from terrorists.
Single-payer, universal, whatever you want to call it, healthcare will be pushed, and, likely, implemented.
It will take a couple of years to pull out of the recession/depression, and Democrats will claim victory, even though it will have little to do with them being in power. I believe they will actually end up setting the country up for economic collapse. I don't think most of them will believe that's what they're doing. Most will believe they are doing the right thing. But, their policies and legislation will actually hurt the economy. And, by then, a world war will be needed--including a full attack on America--in order to reset things economically.
Anyway, by the time the 2022 mid-terms come along, the economy should be improving. Most likely the Democrats will retain control of Congress, although they will probably lose seats.
Over the next couple years (2023-24), more legislation and regulations will be pushed through. The mass shootings will not have stopped. Expressions of hate won't have stopped either. In a lot of ways societal conditions will likely get worse. Healthcare costs will be skyrocketing. But, the Democrats will continue to push more of their liberal, socialist agenda. Some of the Democrats will still belief they are doing what is best for the country. Others will know it's their last good chance to implement their agenda before a possible big Congressional power change in 2024. Most legislatures know it's far easier to pass a law than to have it removed.
During those four years (2021-2024), we may also be surprised at having at least two new (if not three) Supreme Court Justices being confirmed. Most likely it will be just enough to shift the power of the Court to the liberal side.
First, I am glad the Democrats didn't win control of the Senate and the House. But, I was right in predicting earlier this year that they would get at least control of the House. Not that that was a hard prediction.
This could be good for the markets, at least in the short term.
Very little will get done with the new Congress.
The House Democrats will push their agenda, including aggressive attacks on gun rights, and will pass all kinds of legislation through their committees.
But, very little will be passed into law by the Republican controlled Senate. The Democrats know this, but it's all political gamesmanship. They are shooting for the Presidency and full control of Congress in the 2020 election.
As for the markets, since nothing is likely to happen, it will mostly be status quo and predicable, at least for the first half of the year. Investors like predictability and stability. And, they won't have to worry about Congress making any drastic changes that might affect the economy, because the Democrats and Republicans are unlikely to come to a consensus.
The Democrats will very likely push (and have) impeachment hearings. Whether anything comes of that will remain to be seen. Again, it will be a political ploy to get the voting base worked up against the Republicans.
Which is also why a recession (or worse) will begin in late 2019 or early 2020. Personally, I think we will see the real beginnings happen by November 11, 2019. Not that there won't be big ups and downs before then. I just think the markets will mostly be up through the first half of the year, and possibly into September and (maybe) October.
But, if you have great influence on market/economic conditions, and you really dislike Trump and the Republicans, how would you influence the most amount of voters to vote against Trump and the Republicans?
You would sour the economy.
The biggest triumph being claimed by Trump and the Republicans is in the economy. So, that's were the attack will come.
Certainly they will attack other things. There will be a lot more mass shootings. There will be more issues facing privacy, religious rights, and freedom of speech.
But the economy is more tangible, and it affects everyone.
But, you wouldn't want to have an economic downturn too soon, or the Republicans might be able to have conditions improved sufficiently by the election in November 2020.
By fall 2019 we will know most of the contenders for the presidency. The presidential election cycle will be revving up.
So, what if you could orchestrate a market crash in November 2019, a full year before the presidential election, and then, over that next year conditions continue to deteriorate.
The 2007-8 Recession should have been worse, but the government propped things up instead of allowing for what could be termed as natural market easing to more realistic levels.
Additional measures have happened over the last several years that have also prevented severe market drops.
The result is conditions are ripe and the house of cards can easily come crashing down.
Once the stocks start tumbling, it will be hard to get things back on a stable footing.
I believe it is very likely that a market crash in November 2019 will lead to worsening conditions over the next year and half (at least) before economic conditions will be able to level off. Maybe something worse could happen the following October (2020), right before the elections.
If Americans have been experiencing a recession for almost a year, with little (if any) visible improvement, and then there's another economic plummet right before the election, you can be assured that Trump (or whomever the Republican candidate might be) will NOT be the next president. The Democrats will take the presidency, and they will very likely sweep control of Congress.
They will see their victory as a public mandate to push their agenda through as quickly as possible. They will brush aside the conservative parts of the country, and push the liberal agenda of the populous centers (like California and New York) on the entire country.
Increased gun control will be a hot topic, and there will likely be numerous bills passed through in a short amount of time. These will restrict types of firearms available to the public, require more background checks. probably require a national gun registry, and make owning firearms more costly with increased taxes on firearms and ammunition, and increased insurance costs for medical and homeowners.
Reductions in religious liberties and freedom of speech will also happen, in the name of "fairness" and anti-hate. LGBTQ+ will be forefront in these efforts.
Privacy protections will be attacked as regulations are pushed that force companies (particularly tech ones) to work with law enforcement in decrypting information of criminals, or potential criminal activity. The claim is these actions will also help protect our people (including the children) from terrorists.
Single-payer, universal, whatever you want to call it, healthcare will be pushed, and, likely, implemented.
It will take a couple of years to pull out of the recession/depression, and Democrats will claim victory, even though it will have little to do with them being in power. I believe they will actually end up setting the country up for economic collapse. I don't think most of them will believe that's what they're doing. Most will believe they are doing the right thing. But, their policies and legislation will actually hurt the economy. And, by then, a world war will be needed--including a full attack on America--in order to reset things economically.
Anyway, by the time the 2022 mid-terms come along, the economy should be improving. Most likely the Democrats will retain control of Congress, although they will probably lose seats.
Over the next couple years (2023-24), more legislation and regulations will be pushed through. The mass shootings will not have stopped. Expressions of hate won't have stopped either. In a lot of ways societal conditions will likely get worse. Healthcare costs will be skyrocketing. But, the Democrats will continue to push more of their liberal, socialist agenda. Some of the Democrats will still belief they are doing what is best for the country. Others will know it's their last good chance to implement their agenda before a possible big Congressional power change in 2024. Most legislatures know it's far easier to pass a law than to have it removed.
During those four years (2021-2024), we may also be surprised at having at least two new (if not three) Supreme Court Justices being confirmed. Most likely it will be just enough to shift the power of the Court to the liberal side.
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