The persistent (and worsening) drought

The year has been busy and I haven't kept as up-to-date with various events like I have in the past few years.

However, there are still drought conditions. Most of California, despite a heavy snowfall a couple of years ago, is still in drought.

Drought is spreading. Here's the December 11, 2018, drought monitor.

While this changes weekly, monthly, and by season, what is most striking to me is how solid the southwest US is in drought conditions.

Usually there are heavy areas of drought, with more non-drought areas. And I don't see as much in the midwest and east.

When it comes to famine, drought is usually what comes to mind as a causal factor.

But, drought is the obvious.

Excess rain can cause crop failures as well. So can pests. There are even plant diseases that can devastate crops.

Then there are many natural disasters. Of course wars and other geopolitical factors can also play a role.

Regarding the drought,

"The head of the federal agency controlling the Colorado River said Thursday the U.S. government will impose unprecedented restrictions on water supplies to the seven Southwestern U.S. states that depend on the river unless everyone agrees by Jan. 31 on a plan to deal with an expected shortage in 2020" (https://www.ksl.com/article/46447509/utah-southwestern-us-states-get-jan-31-deadline-for-drought-deal).

Cutting water supply from the Colorado River affects users in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, and California. California is probably the least likely to be willing to give up its water.

The two main reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are at 43 percent and 38 percent of their capacity.

Here's something that doesn't seem fair--and which points to how California is often given preferential treatment--

A drought-shortage declaration next year would cut 11.4 percent of Arizona's usual river water allocation beginning in 2020, and 4.3 percent of Nevada's share. That amount of water, combined, would serve more than 625,000 homes. California would voluntarily reduce its Colorado River use by about 6 percent.

Note that California's reductions is voluntary and only to the amount of 6 percent. But the cut to Arizona and Nevada is not voluntary and, in the case of Arizona the cut is almost twice as much as California's.

Even if we end up with a record-breaking winter snowfall this year or next, it will not end the drought. All it would do is give a temporary reprieve.

But what if, after a record breaking snow pack, the summer is dry. It doesn't have to be hot, just below average rainfall. Whatever water is stored from the winter will be used up. Irrigated crops will likely survive, but those that depend on rainfall will struggle.

A problem is most people don't see the problem here or in other parts of the world. It doesn't take much effort to find reports of drought, famine, or crop failures from around the globe.

But our food supply is consistent and, mostly, reliable. And most of our staples haven't gone up much in price. People don't realize how heavily subsidized the agricultural industry is. For a lot of foods we don't experience the real cost.

However, it won't take much to rock the boat. Most of our retail and production is now running just-in-time processes. This adds to efficiency, and reduces costs of carrying excess inventory.

But, if something disrupts the efficient flow shortages will occur, and end-user costs will go up.