Regarding Earthquakes
I posted the following in Hector Sosa's web forum, http://achangeiscomingbook.com/forums/forumid/7/postid/276/scope/posts#276, and I thought I'd post it here as well.
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In case there is any question, I have never cited Julie, or Hector, or anyone else as a sole source that a big earthquake is going to strike Utah, particularly along the Wasatch Fault. As for dreams and visions of earthquakes in Utah, they are also not the only sources.
I've read many reports, articles, and other scientifically valid sources that very clearly state the Wasatch Fault is overdue for a big earthquake. FEMA has even performed several earthquake scenario analysis for earthquakes along the Wasatch Front, with the most recent being for a 7.0 along the Salt Lake segment (which is not a worst case). The loss estimations are staggering, especially when compared to countries that are more earthquake ready (such as Japan or Chile). Despite the preparedness culture, Utah is not prepared for a big one.
I've reviewed the report (not just the news articles about the report) that was put out last year, and I've cited it in a few of my posts. For those who don't know, the previous chances for a large earthquake were 13% within the next 50 years. Last year's (2016) report bumped that to 43%. I have presented an hour-long presentation on earthquakes, earthquake hazards, the Wasatch fault, and earthquake preparedness, all without any mention of any dreams, visions, or non-scientific sources. And I could easily present for 2 hours, without using anyone's visions or dreams. As for my sources, I have hundreds of pages of articles, reports, and studies, with the vast majority being credible research quality. I do not have just a casual interest in earthquakes.
I also regularly review a site that has a 70%+ accuracy for identifying high probability hazard zones for large earthquakes. The site usually has less than 10% of the world's major faults on alert.
For me, Julie and Hector are more like providing possible signs that may precede the earthquake. If you take what they say as possible warnings, then we should have a 2-day sign (according to Hector) and the weather will be sunny with an unexpected cold front that comes in overnight, right before the earthquake (according to Julie).
Interestingly, there is some evidence that earthquakes can occur along or near strong low-high pressure convergence lines, which can also include areas of precipitation. This doesn't always happen, but it can increase the earthquake risk factor. What Julie described (the cold front with some snow) could be attributable to a convergence line, something she likely is unaware of. If she does any research it isn't much and she does seem to get some things mixed up.
For example, in one of her podcasts she claimed the US hadn't experienced a 7.0 or larger earthquake (I don't remember the exact quote or how long she said), but a simple search on the USGS.gov site for past earthquakes shows 8 earthquakes at magnitude 7 or larger in the contiguous US beginning with the 7.7 San Francisco quake in 1906. The most recent is a 7.1 in southern California that happened in 1999. That doesn't include 25 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger in Alaska since 1900. When you include the 6.5 or larger quakes, the total is about 37 in the contiguous US.
However, since the saints came to Utah, the biggest earthquake that has happened in Utah was a 6.5 north of the Salt Lake in 1934, near Hansel Valley. So, Julie's statement is only true when you exclude Alaska, California, Nevada, and the Yellowstone area. Maybe she meant to say Utah and not the US, but what she did say was not accurate.
For those who are interested, the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12 ranged from 7.4 to about 8, but that was before Joseph had his First Vision.
So, it seems like anyone who might want any possible warning should pay attention to possible signs. Unlike a hurricane, tornado, or tsunami there is no early warning system for earthquakes. If you're lucky you might get a foreshock, maybe an earthquake swarm, but those aren't a certainty that a bigger earthquake is coming. There is unscientific evidence that there are other possible warning signs (earthquake lights, unusual animal behavior) which may occur before an earthquake.
That doesn't mean you should rely on one sign that an earthquake will definitely happen. Nor should you rely on a fallible mortal to give you the absolute truth of what will happen or when.
I occasionally listen to Julie, or read what she or others have to say, because there is some truth, even among the inaccuracies (which may or may not be intentional, and in the case of Julie I don't think she is intentionally inaccurate). If you just simply dismiss everything someone says because you find a falsehood, inaccuracy, or misunderstanding in the communication, then you miss the opportunity to discover what might be right. I am concerned about those who blindly follow others. We need to continually be praying for discernment and guidance from the Spirit, and to study things out before making a decision, and then take our decision to the Lord.
I think the wise person will not only be preparing, but will take these possible signs as reminders to review and improve their own preparations. We should also be warning, encouraging, and helping others to prepare. Preparedness is not a one-time-and-you're-done thing. You need to continually be re-evaluating, improving, and expanding your preparations.
It's easy to allow the busyness of life to keep us from becoming better physically and spiritually prepared. I post to share my thoughts, ideas, and comments. I try to be watching, so if I see something that helps me, I try to organize my thoughts and post it. That's a big reason I started my own blog, which is more a repository of my thoughts.
So, whether you believe Julie or not, your chances of experiencing a large earthquake in Utah have increased dramatically, and if you're not prepared for it, you may regret it, especially if you're near the epicenter.
Regarding preparedness, if you're expecting a 72-hour kit to be all you need, you will find that will likely be insufficient. More recent studies have concluded that a 96-hour kit is really what you need (as an absolute minimum). One area of preparation that most people are unaware of is that, according to the FEMA analysis, you may not have potable water in your home (depending on various factors) for 3 months or more after a large earthquake. Are ready for that? Or are you going to rely on the government to help you out?
I've read many reports, articles, and other scientifically valid sources that very clearly state the Wasatch Fault is overdue for a big earthquake. FEMA has even performed several earthquake scenario analysis for earthquakes along the Wasatch Front, with the most recent being for a 7.0 along the Salt Lake segment (which is not a worst case). The loss estimations are staggering, especially when compared to countries that are more earthquake ready (such as Japan or Chile). Despite the preparedness culture, Utah is not prepared for a big one.
I've reviewed the report (not just the news articles about the report) that was put out last year, and I've cited it in a few of my posts. For those who don't know, the previous chances for a large earthquake were 13% within the next 50 years. Last year's (2016) report bumped that to 43%. I have presented an hour-long presentation on earthquakes, earthquake hazards, the Wasatch fault, and earthquake preparedness, all without any mention of any dreams, visions, or non-scientific sources. And I could easily present for 2 hours, without using anyone's visions or dreams. As for my sources, I have hundreds of pages of articles, reports, and studies, with the vast majority being credible research quality. I do not have just a casual interest in earthquakes.
I also regularly review a site that has a 70%+ accuracy for identifying high probability hazard zones for large earthquakes. The site usually has less than 10% of the world's major faults on alert.
For me, Julie and Hector are more like providing possible signs that may precede the earthquake. If you take what they say as possible warnings, then we should have a 2-day sign (according to Hector) and the weather will be sunny with an unexpected cold front that comes in overnight, right before the earthquake (according to Julie).
Interestingly, there is some evidence that earthquakes can occur along or near strong low-high pressure convergence lines, which can also include areas of precipitation. This doesn't always happen, but it can increase the earthquake risk factor. What Julie described (the cold front with some snow) could be attributable to a convergence line, something she likely is unaware of. If she does any research it isn't much and she does seem to get some things mixed up.
For example, in one of her podcasts she claimed the US hadn't experienced a 7.0 or larger earthquake (I don't remember the exact quote or how long she said), but a simple search on the USGS.gov site for past earthquakes shows 8 earthquakes at magnitude 7 or larger in the contiguous US beginning with the 7.7 San Francisco quake in 1906. The most recent is a 7.1 in southern California that happened in 1999. That doesn't include 25 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger in Alaska since 1900. When you include the 6.5 or larger quakes, the total is about 37 in the contiguous US.
However, since the saints came to Utah, the biggest earthquake that has happened in Utah was a 6.5 north of the Salt Lake in 1934, near Hansel Valley. So, Julie's statement is only true when you exclude Alaska, California, Nevada, and the Yellowstone area. Maybe she meant to say Utah and not the US, but what she did say was not accurate.
For those who are interested, the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12 ranged from 7.4 to about 8, but that was before Joseph had his First Vision.
So, it seems like anyone who might want any possible warning should pay attention to possible signs. Unlike a hurricane, tornado, or tsunami there is no early warning system for earthquakes. If you're lucky you might get a foreshock, maybe an earthquake swarm, but those aren't a certainty that a bigger earthquake is coming. There is unscientific evidence that there are other possible warning signs (earthquake lights, unusual animal behavior) which may occur before an earthquake.
That doesn't mean you should rely on one sign that an earthquake will definitely happen. Nor should you rely on a fallible mortal to give you the absolute truth of what will happen or when.
I occasionally listen to Julie, or read what she or others have to say, because there is some truth, even among the inaccuracies (which may or may not be intentional, and in the case of Julie I don't think she is intentionally inaccurate). If you just simply dismiss everything someone says because you find a falsehood, inaccuracy, or misunderstanding in the communication, then you miss the opportunity to discover what might be right. I am concerned about those who blindly follow others. We need to continually be praying for discernment and guidance from the Spirit, and to study things out before making a decision, and then take our decision to the Lord.
I think the wise person will not only be preparing, but will take these possible signs as reminders to review and improve their own preparations. We should also be warning, encouraging, and helping others to prepare. Preparedness is not a one-time-and-you're-done thing. You need to continually be re-evaluating, improving, and expanding your preparations.
It's easy to allow the busyness of life to keep us from becoming better physically and spiritually prepared. I post to share my thoughts, ideas, and comments. I try to be watching, so if I see something that helps me, I try to organize my thoughts and post it. That's a big reason I started my own blog, which is more a repository of my thoughts.
So, whether you believe Julie or not, your chances of experiencing a large earthquake in Utah have increased dramatically, and if you're not prepared for it, you may regret it, especially if you're near the epicenter.
Regarding preparedness, if you're expecting a 72-hour kit to be all you need, you will find that will likely be insufficient. More recent studies have concluded that a 96-hour kit is really what you need (as an absolute minimum). One area of preparation that most people are unaware of is that, according to the FEMA analysis, you may not have potable water in your home (depending on various factors) for 3 months or more after a large earthquake. Are ready for that? Or are you going to rely on the government to help you out?
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