Follow-up to the Cooler Weather and Musings About the Coming Earthquakes
As a follow-up to last week's post,
http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/06/looking-forward-to-some-cooler-weather.html
We, those of us along the Wasatch Front, are, once again, headed back towards higher-than-normal temperatures. Mid-to-high nineties for Monday to Wednesday.
If you watch the various weather reports you will notice there is much greater emphasis placed on the heat, often record heat. However, many places have also experienced record lows and colder temperature, as was experienced this past weekend.
I've always preferred the cooler weather. If you're cold, you can always put more clothes, coats, blankets, etc. on. Heat, on the other hand, well...common decency and modesty (which should apply to men as well as women) should indicate there are limits to how much people should take off and expose. Of course, there are those, and an increasing number of those, who don't think anything of that.
And it's much harder to get sun-burned when you're covered.
Anyway, I've thought it is interesting how a greater focus is on the heat, partially due to the "global warming" hype.
Anyone who gets their head out of the news sites that push global warming can easily find just the opposite, that there is an apparent cooling taking place in many places, which is not getting reported.
The reality is there is climate change, but we, humans, are not the primary factor or cause of the change.
Certainly we are polluting the earth and we need to be much better stewards in taking care of the environment.
However, the changing climate is due to various natural factors, one of which is apparently the sun. And the sun, according to a growing number of scientists and experts, appears to be entering into a grand minimum cycle. The last time this happened was during a period of time called the Maunder Minimum, which also was a mini-ice age. Not that it was icy, but that the global temperatures were colder than what was considered normal.
It is this coming solar minimum that many believe is a primary cause to the changing climate.
And, what is interesting is this fits right in with how various calamities and disasters might play out.
Back to my follow-up.
Because there will be ups and downs in the temperatures, it won't be uncommon to experience what we have during the past few weeks, and into the next week. I've seen it reported and forecast in other parts of the US as well as in other countries. Record, or near record, heat and unseasonably colder temperatures.
So, if what Julie Rowe saw does happen, a colder than usual cold front certainly would fall into the unusual weather patterns. The news might report how the cold front would be forecast to affect some other areas, maybe in Idaho or Montana. But then things shift quickly overnight and the cold front drops in, unexpectedly, into Utah, dusting some snow.
If you paid attention to what happened this past weekend, it might just be a similar type event.
The other thing to consider is that Hector Sosa said he was told there would be a sign given two days before the first Utah earthquake. What that sign is, he wasn't told.
If the two-day sign is to serve as a warning of a coming earthquake in the Salt Lake area, then the sign needs to be given so those in the Salt Lake valley so they can identify it as such. Having a "sign" given in one place to be a warning for people in a different place doesn't make sense. Of course, not everyone who sees it will recognize it as a sign.
I suspect the sign may be a foreshock in the Salt Lake valley. My guess would be a magnitude 4 or higher. A foreshock would probably be the most natural warning for a coming earthquake.
When I was preparing for a presentation on earthquakes one of the examples I used was an earthquake in Japan that happened in April 2016. There were actually two quakes, a M6.2 on April 14 and a M7.0 on April 16.
http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/03/earthquake-warning-foreshock.html
So, while I'm thinking a foreshock in the 4 to 5 range, what would happen if Salt Lake experienced something like Japan?
What if a low 6-range earthquake struck?
People would point accusing fingers at Hector Sosa saying there was no two-day sign. More people would also accuse Julie of being deceived because the weather didn't match up to what she saw.
A low 6-magnitude quake would make most people think the earthquake was sufficiently big to qualify as a "big one," and for most people a bigger earthquake happening within two days would be almost laughable. My guess is most seismologists would probably be on the same page.
There would be a lot of damage, but you need to realize that a 7.0 releases almost 32 times the energy of a 6.0 earthquake. So, the damage would not be quite as extensive.
The problems would be in that there would be some weakening of structures. Aftershocks of the quake would likely be in the 5 or less ranges, and they would probably do some additional damage, but for most part people would expect the worst to have already happened.
So, what happens if a large quake is followed by an even larger one?
If a magnitude 7.0, or larger, earthquake strikes two days later, then the damage will be much more significant than if the 7.0 quake had happened without a large foreshock. Then there would be subsequent aftershocks throughout the following days, weeks, and months. Several of those will likely be in the 6-range.
While such a sequence of earthquakes would likely cause a greater amount of damage, it may result in fewer deaths, if people are out of the previously damaged structures when the bigger earthquake strikes. If that were to be the case, it would actually be better than if a smaller 4-range earthquake strikes as the warning.
So, if both signs are combined, we might expect a two-day sign (possibly a foreshock quake), with sunny weather and a coming cold front that is expected to stay clear of the state, but, it unexpectedly comes in before the big earthquake strikes.
This is where one might be more vigilant. If something that appears to be a sign occurs, it might be a good idea to look at the short-range forecasts and see if a cold front is going to be visiting a neighboring state, but isn't expected to come into Utah.
I'm not saying one of both of the signs will or won't occur. However, I've done some research on earthquakes, enough to know there are times when foreshocks do occur, when there is a warning, if people pay attention.
I've also lived in Utah long enough to know the weather pattern described by Julie is very probable, even up until early July (rare, but I do recall hearing of a dusting of snow in early July many years ago--I was working at a scout camp at the time so I wasn't actually present for it). It can also happen in September. With the climate doing unusual things, an unseasonable cold front may just become more likely.
And, that is why I suggested paying attention to the weather earlier this week. It is also why, particularly on some other forums--before I started this blog--that I would occasionally bring up the weather forecasts.
Back in the latter half of 2015 there was a lot of buzz and hype about a coming earthquake, and preparedness was big. 2016 saw some of that hype die down, but it could still be seen in some forums.
As 2017 marches towards its midway point there is even less buzz. Complacency and normalcy have returned for the most part, particularly as the economic outlook appears to be improving.
How much more will people brush off earthquake preparedness, and even general preparedness? Probably a lot.
In past posts I've postulated on possible timings for the first big earthquake, based on when it might be probable for a great gathering.
Personally I think there will be 3-3.5 to 7 years from the first big earthquake until the mega-quake.
If the gathering were to happen in 2020, then a 3 year mark would happen this fall. Seven years from this fall would be in 2024.
Working back from 2024 would put 2021 at the three year time.
So, if the great gathering occurs in 2020, then we should expect the first big earthquake to happen within the next year.
But, if the great gathering doesn't happen until 2024, then the first earthquake may not happen until 2021.
If it's not clear, I think the first big Utah earthquake is most likely to happen within the next four years. I do think it is very likely that Utah will legalize medical marijuana first, and I think the first quake is probably going to happen in the spring time, so I'm not really expecting the earthquake in 2017. (As I've mentioned before, this doesn't mean I'm postponing preparedness. I've been wrong plenty of times).
Another interesting thought is, maybe the eclipse that is coming in August will mark a final seven-year period before the years of tribulation begin (I'm not saying there won't be tribulation, trials, and persecution before then, because there will be). Or, maybe it's the final years before America falls.
http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/02/coming-total-solar-eclipses-in-2017-and.html
But, don't put off getting prepared. Preparedness takes time (and money, which most of us are lacking), and we cannot afford to delay.
While there may be seven years before America, as we know it, falls, there could also be less (and there could be more). I'm mostly leaning towards the 2024 time frame. But, I think we only have a year, maybe two, of abundance where we can more easily get prepared. After that, we may be in for a rapid downward slide in availability of food that we can store.
http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/06/looking-forward-to-some-cooler-weather.html
We, those of us along the Wasatch Front, are, once again, headed back towards higher-than-normal temperatures. Mid-to-high nineties for Monday to Wednesday.
If you watch the various weather reports you will notice there is much greater emphasis placed on the heat, often record heat. However, many places have also experienced record lows and colder temperature, as was experienced this past weekend.
I've always preferred the cooler weather. If you're cold, you can always put more clothes, coats, blankets, etc. on. Heat, on the other hand, well...common decency and modesty (which should apply to men as well as women) should indicate there are limits to how much people should take off and expose. Of course, there are those, and an increasing number of those, who don't think anything of that.
And it's much harder to get sun-burned when you're covered.
Anyway, I've thought it is interesting how a greater focus is on the heat, partially due to the "global warming" hype.
Anyone who gets their head out of the news sites that push global warming can easily find just the opposite, that there is an apparent cooling taking place in many places, which is not getting reported.
The reality is there is climate change, but we, humans, are not the primary factor or cause of the change.
Certainly we are polluting the earth and we need to be much better stewards in taking care of the environment.
However, the changing climate is due to various natural factors, one of which is apparently the sun. And the sun, according to a growing number of scientists and experts, appears to be entering into a grand minimum cycle. The last time this happened was during a period of time called the Maunder Minimum, which also was a mini-ice age. Not that it was icy, but that the global temperatures were colder than what was considered normal.
It is this coming solar minimum that many believe is a primary cause to the changing climate.
And, what is interesting is this fits right in with how various calamities and disasters might play out.
Back to my follow-up.
Because there will be ups and downs in the temperatures, it won't be uncommon to experience what we have during the past few weeks, and into the next week. I've seen it reported and forecast in other parts of the US as well as in other countries. Record, or near record, heat and unseasonably colder temperatures.
So, if what Julie Rowe saw does happen, a colder than usual cold front certainly would fall into the unusual weather patterns. The news might report how the cold front would be forecast to affect some other areas, maybe in Idaho or Montana. But then things shift quickly overnight and the cold front drops in, unexpectedly, into Utah, dusting some snow.
If you paid attention to what happened this past weekend, it might just be a similar type event.
The other thing to consider is that Hector Sosa said he was told there would be a sign given two days before the first Utah earthquake. What that sign is, he wasn't told.
If the two-day sign is to serve as a warning of a coming earthquake in the Salt Lake area, then the sign needs to be given so those in the Salt Lake valley so they can identify it as such. Having a "sign" given in one place to be a warning for people in a different place doesn't make sense. Of course, not everyone who sees it will recognize it as a sign.
I suspect the sign may be a foreshock in the Salt Lake valley. My guess would be a magnitude 4 or higher. A foreshock would probably be the most natural warning for a coming earthquake.
When I was preparing for a presentation on earthquakes one of the examples I used was an earthquake in Japan that happened in April 2016. There were actually two quakes, a M6.2 on April 14 and a M7.0 on April 16.
http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/03/earthquake-warning-foreshock.html
So, while I'm thinking a foreshock in the 4 to 5 range, what would happen if Salt Lake experienced something like Japan?
What if a low 6-range earthquake struck?
People would point accusing fingers at Hector Sosa saying there was no two-day sign. More people would also accuse Julie of being deceived because the weather didn't match up to what she saw.
A low 6-magnitude quake would make most people think the earthquake was sufficiently big to qualify as a "big one," and for most people a bigger earthquake happening within two days would be almost laughable. My guess is most seismologists would probably be on the same page.
There would be a lot of damage, but you need to realize that a 7.0 releases almost 32 times the energy of a 6.0 earthquake. So, the damage would not be quite as extensive.
The problems would be in that there would be some weakening of structures. Aftershocks of the quake would likely be in the 5 or less ranges, and they would probably do some additional damage, but for most part people would expect the worst to have already happened.
So, what happens if a large quake is followed by an even larger one?
If a magnitude 7.0, or larger, earthquake strikes two days later, then the damage will be much more significant than if the 7.0 quake had happened without a large foreshock. Then there would be subsequent aftershocks throughout the following days, weeks, and months. Several of those will likely be in the 6-range.
While such a sequence of earthquakes would likely cause a greater amount of damage, it may result in fewer deaths, if people are out of the previously damaged structures when the bigger earthquake strikes. If that were to be the case, it would actually be better than if a smaller 4-range earthquake strikes as the warning.
So, if both signs are combined, we might expect a two-day sign (possibly a foreshock quake), with sunny weather and a coming cold front that is expected to stay clear of the state, but, it unexpectedly comes in before the big earthquake strikes.
This is where one might be more vigilant. If something that appears to be a sign occurs, it might be a good idea to look at the short-range forecasts and see if a cold front is going to be visiting a neighboring state, but isn't expected to come into Utah.
I'm not saying one of both of the signs will or won't occur. However, I've done some research on earthquakes, enough to know there are times when foreshocks do occur, when there is a warning, if people pay attention.
I've also lived in Utah long enough to know the weather pattern described by Julie is very probable, even up until early July (rare, but I do recall hearing of a dusting of snow in early July many years ago--I was working at a scout camp at the time so I wasn't actually present for it). It can also happen in September. With the climate doing unusual things, an unseasonable cold front may just become more likely.
And, that is why I suggested paying attention to the weather earlier this week. It is also why, particularly on some other forums--before I started this blog--that I would occasionally bring up the weather forecasts.
Back in the latter half of 2015 there was a lot of buzz and hype about a coming earthquake, and preparedness was big. 2016 saw some of that hype die down, but it could still be seen in some forums.
As 2017 marches towards its midway point there is even less buzz. Complacency and normalcy have returned for the most part, particularly as the economic outlook appears to be improving.
How much more will people brush off earthquake preparedness, and even general preparedness? Probably a lot.
In past posts I've postulated on possible timings for the first big earthquake, based on when it might be probable for a great gathering.
Personally I think there will be 3-3.5 to 7 years from the first big earthquake until the mega-quake.
If the gathering were to happen in 2020, then a 3 year mark would happen this fall. Seven years from this fall would be in 2024.
Working back from 2024 would put 2021 at the three year time.
So, if the great gathering occurs in 2020, then we should expect the first big earthquake to happen within the next year.
But, if the great gathering doesn't happen until 2024, then the first earthquake may not happen until 2021.
If it's not clear, I think the first big Utah earthquake is most likely to happen within the next four years. I do think it is very likely that Utah will legalize medical marijuana first, and I think the first quake is probably going to happen in the spring time, so I'm not really expecting the earthquake in 2017. (As I've mentioned before, this doesn't mean I'm postponing preparedness. I've been wrong plenty of times).
Another interesting thought is, maybe the eclipse that is coming in August will mark a final seven-year period before the years of tribulation begin (I'm not saying there won't be tribulation, trials, and persecution before then, because there will be). Or, maybe it's the final years before America falls.
http://fulnessoftimes.blogspot.com/2017/02/coming-total-solar-eclipses-in-2017-and.html
But, don't put off getting prepared. Preparedness takes time (and money, which most of us are lacking), and we cannot afford to delay.
While there may be seven years before America, as we know it, falls, there could also be less (and there could be more). I'm mostly leaning towards the 2024 time frame. But, I think we only have a year, maybe two, of abundance where we can more easily get prepared. After that, we may be in for a rapid downward slide in availability of food that we can store.
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